Roger McNamee: Mark Zuckerberg is “The One”
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/89124073/ It’s weird when you listen to someone that you’ve never heard of before—someone that you’ve never met—talk about his opinions on a complex issue and you both are in complete agreement. This is exactly what happens to me every time I hear Roger McNamee talk. We are both bullish on Facebook and Apple; bearish … Read more
My old trading setup: Testing “The Club”
As I was checking my computer for old files to back up (I’m selling my MacBook) I came across this photo of my trading desk: Click on the photo to enlarge it. On the right-side computer monitor, I had my list of longs and shorts arranged carefully under relevant categories. Longs occupy the top half; … Read more
PCs will be like trucks. The new iPad is very disruptive to laptop PCs, which of course Apple also sells.
The easier thing to do is figure out who loses. What you really should have done in 1905 when you saw what the auto industry was going to do is you should have gone short horses. There were 20 million horses in 1900 and there are about 4 million horses now. So it’s easy to … Read more
Did I really say Google was a short? I wasn’t serious or sane when I said that. Eat where you want to eat.
As a believer in Facebook, I have been verbally smashing Google lately. GoogleTV sucks, Google+ sucks, the paid ad business is a “bubble” (I hate using that overused word) and this and that. Well, no company is perfect and I carried my criticism too far when I said GOOG was a short. I never actually … Read more
Hugh Hendry Interview: GDP Growth Of +5% Would Be A Hard Landing In China; The Yen Could SOAR From These Levels
Page 32 of Barron’s features an interview with Hugh Hendry, founder of Eclectica Asset Management. “If you talk about a hard landing in China, you talk about GDP growth of 5%, not minus 5% or minus 15%. The Chinese government prints money. It can build superfast railways and overbuild airports, because the rest of the … Read more
Breaking News: Facebook Clears At $40 Per Share On SecondMarket; I Talk To A Facebook Employee
Shares cleared at $40 on SecondMarket, a record high ($93.3 billion valuation). At the same time, volume was at a record low–20,000 shares. Consider that last week, volume was over 170,000 shares. There is simply a huge demand from buyers and not much supply from sellers. There were bids for 13 million shares vs. 2 … Read more
FB at $37 per share ($86 billion valuation): The Market Reacts To Facebook S-1
Last Wednesday, FB shares cleared at $33 and $40, on SecondMarket and Sharespost respectively. The bids for each Dutch auction were due at noon that day, five hours before Facebook filed its S-1. So this week is the first time we get to see the market’s reaction to the filing. Last night, the clearing prices … Read more
The Efficiency Of The Indian Market And Foreign Investor Inflows/Outflows; Jubilant Foodworks Has 1/2 The Market Cap Of DPZ, Despite Having Less Than 1/8 Of The Franchises: “Bingo” In Poker
Last week I got a primer on investing in India from a local. I like looking at things that are off the map, and India definitely qualifies. I could only find two academic papers on whether their stock market is efficient! It isn’t. For one thing, there appear to be day-of-the-week effects! Now I am … Read more
Bill Browder: The Type Of Innovator The Fund Industry Needs
“What’s my unique comparative advantage with all these other people that are all so smart, and all so good, and all so ambitious… and I thought, ‘Well I’m a businessman. But I am also the grandson of the head of the Communist Party.’ And it just so happened that 1989 was the year that the … Read more
The Information in Option Volume for Future Stock Prices
http://faculty.baruch.cuny.edu/lwu/890/PanPoteshman_RFS2006.pdf 4. Conclusion In this article, we examined the informational content of option volume for future stock price movements. Our main objectives were to identify informed trading in the option market and to elucidate the process of price discovery. We found strong and unambiguous evidence that there is informed trading in the option market. Moreover, … Read more
I really hate sell side research; Closing out my MEDH trade. Invest then investigate; My investing approach is weighted toward interviewing company insiders
I can read almost any research report put out by sell-side analysts by accessing NASDAQ OMX Corporate Solutions. It costs something like $10,000 a month, and I’m glad I don’t have to pay for it. Having sell-side research seems like a good tool but it really isn’t. It will put thoughts in your mind that … Read more
The Apple moat in a nutshell
Courtesy of an anonymous user on Quora: Apple actually uses its cash hoard in a very interesting way to maintain a decisive advantage over its rivals: When new component technologies (touchscreens, chips, LED displays) first come out, they are very expensive to produce, and building a factory that can produce them in mass quantities is … Read more
BYD: Quite possibly a very lengthy turnaround story
Disclosure: I do not hold a position in BYD. After briefly considering an investment in Foxconn (and passing), I am continuing to scout around Asia for good investments. If I’m going to put my money at risk in a foreign land, I would feel more comfortable coattailing somebody big… like Buffett. BYD is one of … Read more
