MySpace: What Could Have Been?
“Nothing wrong with MySpace price. Just our totally screwing up every way. Agree Facebook revenues will zoom, but still Apple cheap.” -Rupert Murdoch, on Twitter I agree. Don’t be in a rush to monetize something that could be worth a tremendous amount down the road.
George Soros Comments On Graham Dodd
http://link.brightcove.com/services/player/bcpid607698505?bctid=28217116001 We used to have security analysis based on Graham and Dodd. Shares were supposed to reflect the underlying earning power… discounted earning power of the companies concerned. I mean… people who run hedge funds know that that’s not what it’s about. It’s about are the stocks going to go up or down? It doesn’t … Read more
The Video Paul Tudor Jones Doesn’t Want Us To See
http://www.tudou.com/programs/view/XH5W4vffBbY/
Interesting Quotes From RenTec’s Jim Simons
“Speculation comes in and destroys trends. I am a speculator. It accelerates the trend. It gets you closer to the truth faster.” “We decided that systematic trading was best. Fundamental trading gave me ulcers.” “It took us six years to learn how to trade stocks.” “Trend-following is not such a good model. It’s simply eroded.” … Read more
Tales From A Floor Trader, Or Why The Fundamentals ARE IN The Technicals.
Me: “When you were a floor trader, did you use technical analysis much?” Nick: “Not really. You couldn’t really look at a chart and trade off that reliably. A lot of it was momentum, though. When it was going up, you had to buy it. We did a lot of spreads. We’d check open interest … Read more
The Efficiency Of The Indian Market And Foreign Investor Inflows/Outflows; Jubilant Foodworks Has 1/2 The Market Cap Of DPZ, Despite Having Less Than 1/8 Of The Franchises: “Bingo” In Poker
Last week I got a primer on investing in India from a local. I like looking at things that are off the map, and India definitely qualifies. I could only find two academic papers on whether their stock market is efficient! It isn’t. For one thing, there appear to be day-of-the-week effects! Now I am … Read more
Eddie Lampert Raises; Then CIT Stops Factoring Sears’ Receivables
This weekend, an old acquaintance of mine was kind enough to tell me how stupid it was to have any long position in Sears Holdings. He is very good at analyzing retailers, among other things–and he has a great track record in all things short. He warned me that Sears might experience a supplier run. … Read more
More Evidence That The Apple Long Thesis Is Alive And Well: Motorola Sucks
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-01-10/google-falls-most-since-august-after-motorola-results.html Yesterday’s news. I apologize. There’s one company left on Earth I can think of whose stock price doesn’t reflect the rise of Apple. It is priced by absolute lunatics. It’s like Logitech. I’ll write something about it later. Sorry.
Bill Browder: The Type Of Innovator The Fund Industry Needs
“What’s my unique comparative advantage with all these other people that are all so smart, and all so good, and all so ambitious… and I thought, ‘Well I’m a businessman. But I am also the grandson of the head of the Communist Party.’ And it just so happened that 1989 was the year that the … Read more
The Canadians (Not RIMM) Have Made A $50 Tablet Computer
Tatemae (façade): http://blogs.wsj.com/speakeasy/2012/01/08/the-inside-story-of-indias-50-computer-tablet/ Honne (truth): http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/kapil-sibal-cheapest-tablet-of-world-aakash-failure/1/167730.html It’s $50, BUT… The screen is 7 inches. When will people realize this is dumb? http://stableboyselections.com/2011/11/08/according-to-steve-jobs-would-argue-that-the-kindle-fire-will-be-dead-on-arrival-ill-put-some-money-on-it/ The battery lasts 3 hours. The screen isn’t multitouch. There’s 2GB of internal storage. The processor is too slow. I think the Apple thesis is largely intact. Apple devices still have the highest … Read more
Interesting Things About Soros From Vic Niederhoffer
“Soros told me once that he lost more money selling short than on any other speculative activity. My experience is similar.” “Boasts about great successes are a giveaway on someone’s insecurity. When I was good in squash, I didn’t go around telling the whole world about it. ‘My racquet will do the talking,’ I’d say. … Read more
Now That Most Chinese RTOs Have Blown Up And Most Apple Competitors Have Been Vanquished We Have To Go Somewhere Else For Alpha.
A couple days ago I talked to two fund managers who earned net returns to investors of over 200% in 2011! In each of the previous two years, they returned over 80%. Most of this outperformance came from shorting US-listed companies based in China. The managers write in their letters that future returns are very … Read more
Who’s The Sucker In The Markets Today? Are There Enough Of Them To Feed The Hedge Funds? Steve Crist: The Suckers Don’t Bet On Horses As They Used To
“Twenty years ago, if you made your own speed figures [a method of standardizing horses’ running times for comparison, popularized by noted handicapper and Washington Post columnist Andrew Beyer ’65] and followed horseracing closely, you had a real edge over the majority of the public. But now, so many of the bad gamblers–the people who … Read more
Window Dressing In Illiquid Stocks. BZC, IBA, SFL, CRP.TO, BR.TO All Up Around 2% On A Down Day? Obviously Not A Coincidence. Window Dressing CDS Marks.
A couple weeks ago I pointed out the underperformance of VN Capital, a New York-based fund with a good overall track record. I recently went long virtually every one of their holdings at prices substantially lower than their cost basis. What I did not mention is that there tends to be end-of-the-quarter, end-of-the-day window dressing … Read more
Hedge Fund Performance in 2011: It Validates the Efficient Market Hypothesis; Greenlight Capital Did OK… The Results Are In
The Barclay Hedge Fund Index ended 2011 with a 5% loss. http://www.barclayhedge.com/ The only strategies–asset classes–that worked were bonds and shorting stocks. Treasurys gained about 8% on the year. That would have been inconceivable a year ago. I remember running into a floor trader who told me he had a levered long position in TBT. … Read more
