The Securities & Exchange Commission should be purged, Sony still doesn’t know it’s irrelevant, covered CGA short, shorting VXX again
All along my daily commute, I see ample evidence of government incompetence and waste. At the PATH station in Jersey City, several police officers stand around chatting with one another as if without a care in the world. Any work they do is half-assed–for instance they check people’s bags for contraband at the right-hand entrance … Read more
Momentum trading in 2010… and why it’s smart to buy tech companies
“The dumbest reason to buy a stock is because it’s recently gone up.” -Warren Buffett 2009 and 2010 seem to have been great years for dumb money–momentum traders and technical analysts. Thanks to the various bailouts and subsequent reflation, they’ve made a lot of money in a hurry. But the more these idiots of Wall … Read more
My thoughts on ETNs, the yen, GGP, Prem Watsa’s bet on deflation, and China Green Agriculture is a fraud
I re-shorted VXX on Thursday and bought to cover on Friday for another attractive annualized return. Such ETNs and ETFs, especially levered ones, are a sucker’s bet; not only is there a great deal of contango and tracking error, the management fees are undeserved. The next time VXX pops, I’m going to re-short it. My … Read more
Current Portfolio (8/23)
Barclays designed VXX to go to zero in the long run, barring continuous jumps in the Volatility Index which I believe to be almost impossible. I have earned high annualized returns by shorting it on every spike and covering a few days later. Today I bought to cover a position initiated on Thursday for a … Read more
Current Portfolio (8/18)
I think the degree of today’s market decline was overdone. The buyout offers for Potash and McAfee are probably prelude to similar deals; individual stocks are cheap on the basis of value to a private owner. I added a long position in Mass Financial Corporation and a short position in the S&P 500 VIX Short-Term … Read more
GlobalOptions Group common (GLOI): 15% long position at $2.30
I’m going to discuss the liquidation of a tiny ($32 million market cap) holding company named GlobalOptions Group. What the company does isn’t that important anymore since all of its operations are being sold off, but for the purpose of exposition here is a brief rundown: 1. The Preparedness Services unit offers a full range … Read more
Update
Today I used the selloff to cover my shorts on Grand Canyon Education, Clearwire and Panasonic. I may be way too early in reducing short exposure to the for-profit education meltdown, but I think going for the last nickel may not be the right idea here. Besides I can always reshort LOPE after other short … Read more
The Accruals Anomaly: Idea Exchange
It’s Friday night, and I’m waiting to go out. In the meantime I’ve decided to start a friendly challenge for my blog visitors. The stock market is so vast with data that all types of “anomalies” can be “discovered” in hindsight. One anomaly that I believe will exist till the end of time is the … Read more
Vistaprint common (VPRT): -39% in one day
When done well, fraud is highly profitable. And it’s common wherever there are not extreme penalties for it. This explains why so many CFOs are told by senior executives to beautify their company’s financial statements and prospects. It’s another thing entirely when the company itself is defrauding customers. Take Vistaprint as an illustration of both. … Read more
The endgame for Netflix (Revised)
I subscribe to Netflix. It provides a great service (commercial-free movies) for just $9 a month. I am also selling naked call options on Netflix’s stock (NFLX), with a notional value equal to 5% of my portfolio. I came across this idea while reading Katherine Burton’s Hedge Hunters. In Jim Chanos’s profile, the great investor … Read more
Current Portfolio
As of the close today my net long exposure is very low, and most long positions are of the workout variety as opposed to generally undervalued securities. This reflects my view that the general market level is not cheap. For options positions, the percentage amount represents the notional value as a proportion of the portfolio. … Read more
Citigroup common (C)
A repost from pecuniary.wordpress.com: I’m coattailing Bill Ackman on this one, even though I think the holding period will probably end up testing my patience. Citigroup is trading at less than tangible book value, which is growing rapidly from new business written at huge spreads. The next $21 billion of income will be free of … Read more
Goldman Sachs common (GS)
A repost from pecuniary.wordpress.com: Goldman Sachs trading below book value is too good to pass up. I’m making it a four percent long position at around $130 per share. The market seems to be pricing in a fairly high probability that the company will go bankrupt, which is a distinct possibility in the case of … Read more
Apple common (AAPL)
Last month I started writing under the pen name of Veblen on pecuniary.wordpress.com. That blog was supposed to mark my conversion from a “value investor” to just an investor–with the new belief that fundamental value is only one datapoint in the process of picking securities. Well, I’ve decided to repost my work here in order … Read more
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eclecticvalue on My thoughts on ETNs, the yen, … Veblen on My thoughts on ETNs, the yen, … eclecticvalue on My thoughts on ETNs, the yen, … ER on GlobalOptions Group common (GL… Yildiz on The “Missing” Berk… Veblen on Current Portfolio (8/18)
