Bill Browder: The Type Of Innovator The Fund Industry Needs
“What’s my unique comparative advantage with all these other people that are all so smart, and all so good, and all so ambitious… and I thought, ‘Well I’m a businessman. But I am also the grandson of the head of the Communist Party.’ And it just so happened that 1989 was the year that the … Read more
Tempurpedic Cannot Possibly Be Worth Its Current Price
I think I did an OK job of preparing for the January effect, as we had no sizable shorts going into the new year. However, there are two investments that have cost more than 300 basis points of performance. One of them is Tempurpedic (TPX). Bulls are downplaying the competitive pressure from Serta’s iComfort line … Read more
BankRegData.com: The fundamentals are improving for MGIC; That’s why I’m long.
This week BankRegData.com reviews the Banking Industry 3rd Quarter 2011 performance for Asset Quality, Loans, Restructures and REO. Using the Texas Ratio as a measure of risk we see that (collectively) banks continue to improve: A review by Asset Size shows some risk in the largest banks (where GAAP issues mitigate some of the concerns) … Read more
RIMM at tangible book value… Wow, that was fast. Short RIMM Jan $13 and $14 puts. Taking advantage of tax loss selling. What about Android on Blackberries? I talk to an Apple app developer.
“Many value investors eschew investing in technology companies because the products are complicated and the field changes rapidly. We take the view that technology companies that are not losing money, are trading at book value, and appear to have a viable product are good investments.” -David Einhorn I think Research in Motion is a “Larry … Read more
The Information in Option Volume for Future Stock Prices
http://faculty.baruch.cuny.edu/lwu/890/PanPoteshman_RFS2006.pdf 4. Conclusion In this article, we examined the informational content of option volume for future stock price movements. Our main objectives were to identify informed trading in the option market and to elucidate the process of price discovery. We found strong and unambiguous evidence that there is informed trading in the option market. Moreover, … Read more
MGIC (ticker: MTG): A stock pick from the über-bear Kyle Bass
DISCLOSURE: I hold a long position in MTG. So Kyle Bass doesn’t think house prices can go much lower from here. He studied every housing bubble in the past 100 years and realized that it takes about 7 years after prices peak for there to be a recovery. Since house prices peaked in 2006, he … Read more
I really hate sell side research; Closing out my MEDH trade. Invest then investigate; My investing approach is weighted toward interviewing company insiders
I can read almost any research report put out by sell-side analysts by accessing NASDAQ OMX Corporate Solutions. It costs something like $10,000 a month, and I’m glad I don’t have to pay for it. Having sell-side research seems like a good tool but it really isn’t. It will put thoughts in your mind that … Read more
The Apple moat in a nutshell
Courtesy of an anonymous user on Quora: Apple actually uses its cash hoard in a very interesting way to maintain a decisive advantage over its rivals: When new component technologies (touchscreens, chips, LED displays) first come out, they are very expensive to produce, and building a factory that can produce them in mass quantities is … Read more
Olympus hid losses. There’s more than one cockroach in Japan. I think the entire country is beyond the point of no return. Shorting Japanese life insurers.
In my favorite episode of The Simpsons, the family goes on vacation in Japan. Homer, being the usual simpleton, does not want to eat at a traditional Japanese restaurant, instead preferring to eat at America Town–a place serving American food and staffed by waiters who pretend to be American. Lisa: [Looking at the menu.] Don’t … Read more
BYD: Quite possibly a very lengthy turnaround story
Disclosure: I do not hold a position in BYD. After briefly considering an investment in Foxconn (and passing), I am continuing to scout around Asia for good investments. If I’m going to put my money at risk in a foreign land, I would feel more comfortable coattailing somebody big… like Buffett. BYD is one of … Read more
More on the Shenzhen property market. When will China build the world’s tallest building? NOAH collapses.
I have gotten more information on the property market in Shenzhen. There are all kinds of homes in the villages, but a typical old-fashioned setup would be a duplex–two apartments sharing an entrance. I am looking to get exact measurements and pictures of various properties, but from what I understand each apartment is something like … Read more
Groupon might make Valassis Communications extinct. Can somebody calculate how much a 100 basis point increase in interest rates will cost VCI?
I live in an apartment building so I get to pick up on the habits of hundreds of people just by walking around and paying attention. On my floor people like the WSJ and FT. Other floors have more generalists because they read the Times. The mail room tells me the most. More than half … Read more
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