I used RightSignature and have something to add to the JCOM short case
Bronte Capital published a great analysis on j2 Global here. John Hempton found no evidence of fraud—JCOM is just using cash from operations to roll up competitors in the electronic fax business and then raising prices. But my issue with this is that the goodwill created during the acquisitions can hardly be called goodwill at … Read more
SoundExchange: A rentier non-profit/mutual holding company; Pandora shareholders are playing a risky game of Monopoly
SoundExchange is a “performance rights organization” that collects royalties from service providers like Spotify, Pandora and Sirius Satellite Radio–and then distributes the royalties to artists. Here is a video explaining how the process works. SoundExchange retains very little of its earnings, distributing virtually all of its income to artists, so it is effectively a mutual … Read more
Pandora: sell-side double talk from Stifel Nicolaus; I message Tim Westergren
“Valuation remains vexing unless one believes, as we do, that the strategic value of becoming a mobile advertising platform justifies a value of $4 billion or more.” -Jordan Rohan Why even mention that the valuation is bothersome (read: excessive) if you really believe the stock is worth 50% more than its current price? If this … Read more
I have become extremely bearish on Pandora. My price target is $5 because I think Spotify will destroy it.
Pandora.com’s free service is very limited. It does not allow users to replay or rewind tracks. It does not allow you to listen to a specific artist or song on demand. Pandora’s Human Genome Project is good at suggesting music that users like, but this feature is becoming commoditized. Spotify Radio suggests music. Grooveshark suggests … Read more
Tempurpedic Cannot Possibly Be Worth Its Current Price
I think I did an OK job of preparing for the January effect, as we had no sizable shorts going into the new year. However, there are two investments that have cost more than 300 basis points of performance. One of them is Tempurpedic (TPX). Bulls are downplaying the competitive pressure from Serta’s iComfort line … Read more
Olympus hid losses. There’s more than one cockroach in Japan. I think the entire country is beyond the point of no return. Shorting Japanese life insurers.
In my favorite episode of The Simpsons, the family goes on vacation in Japan. Homer, being the usual simpleton, does not want to eat at a traditional Japanese restaurant, instead preferring to eat at America Town–a place serving American food and staffed by waiters who pretend to be American. Lisa: [Looking at the menu.] Don’t … Read more
More on the Shenzhen property market. When will China build the world’s tallest building? NOAH collapses.
I have gotten more information on the property market in Shenzhen. There are all kinds of homes in the villages, but a typical old-fashioned setup would be a duplex–two apartments sharing an entrance. I am looking to get exact measurements and pictures of various properties, but from what I understand each apartment is something like … Read more
Groupon might make Valassis Communications extinct. Can somebody calculate how much a 100 basis point increase in interest rates will cost VCI?
I live in an apartment building so I get to pick up on the habits of hundreds of people just by walking around and paying attention. On my floor people like the WSJ and FT. Other floors have more generalists because they read the Times. The mail room tells me the most. More than half … Read more
