IDCC: Who Is Selling?
Certainly not value buyers who bought this much higher. IDCC has $10 of net cash and more than $2.50 EPS. Any value investor would buy this at 10X earnings. Traders will keep buying this as long as it holds $35, which it appears to be doing. This is an unusually low-uncertainty situation. Everyone knows that … Read more
Update On Apple: It’s A Myth That Apple’s OS Is “Closed” While Android Is “Open”: Evidence From Jailbreaking
The Apple Meme Is Still Strong This is self evident unless you live in a cave. Even among people not remotely interested in technology, Apple comes up in conversation. I hear Apple mentioned on random commercials. Whenever a computer is depicted, it tends to be a Mac. This weekend I saw John Oliver’s standup routine. … Read more
Apple Discloses 97% Of Suppliers
Apple just released a list of some of its major suppliers. Interestingly not one of the publicly traded companies has performed well in the market (except Samsung Electronics). Foxconn is back to where it was in early 2009, AU Optronics (the screen supplier for Macs) is near five-year lows, Vishay had a bad 2011, TriQuint … Read more
This Sears Trade Is Really Annoying Me: The Bonds Look Interesting
Last week I mentioned selling SHLD January $37.50 puts for $4.50. They last traded at $8.22. At one point on Thursday they traded above $9. That’s a loss of 90-100%. Fortunately I limited my notional exposure to under 5%. So the loss is less than half a percent of the portfolio. I’m not happy about … Read more
FML! Trades I Missed But Shouldn’t Have In 2011: Saratoga Resources & FBNK
FML! I missed a 40% gain in SARA because I never took this report seriously: We are initiating coverage of SARA with a Market Outperform rating and a $9.00 target price. SARA is a small-cap E&P company whose asset base is concentrated on the marshes and shallow waters of the Louisiana coastline. The stock is … Read more
SHLD Becomes an “Ick” Stock, or more appropriately a “Larry King” stock
“Another issue I have with this sort of thinking is probably best summarized by the word “Ick.” Ick investing means taking a special analytical interest in stocks that inspire a first reaction of “ick.” I tend to become interested in stocks that by their very names or circumstances inspire an unwillingness – and an “ick” … Read more
Who wants to own a spinoff undergoing distressed selling into the end of the year/quarter?
Nobody. That’s why TRIP is getting crushed. I figure it’s worth a 3% position down here. Here’s an interview with the founder, courtesy of Tech Crunch: http://techcrunch.com/2011/12/21/founder-stories-tripadvisors-kaufer-crucial-early-decisions-paved-the-way-for-an-ipo/ I like the business model a lot more than Angie’s List. ……….. Yesterday my business partner told me about another tech company looking to IPO, Razer. I thought … Read more
Which Hedge Fund am I Supplying Liquidity to?
DISCLOSURE: I hold a long position in Ceres Global Ag, Breeze Eastern, Ship Finance International, Industrias Bachoco and Big Rock Brewery. In a previous post I mentioned that a hedge fund in New York may have been forced to sell some positions due to redemption requests. This was an educated guess based off of the … Read more
Strange that GM is down so much today isn’t it?
I wonder who’s selling. GM is made up of: 1) Core GM; 2) Chinese JVs; 3) Stake in Ally Financial; 4) Stake in Delphi (the auto supplier); 5) Stake in Americredit; 6) NOLs; 7) an underfunded pension. It’s probably worth AT LEAST 30% more than the current price. EOM
Barron’s Pumps Cablevision (CVC): Stock is Being Accumulated
As of 10:50, CVC has already surpassed its average daily volume, rising 3%. Some institution is obviously buying the stock after reading the positive Barron’s article over the weekend. I kind of like the idea as a short term trade. Longer term, there are a lot of unknowns. I do not want to own any … Read more
It’s Options Expiration Day. How Did I Do This Month? How Am I Doing This Year?
Most money managers calculate their performance at the end of a month or the end of a quarter or the end of a year. Since I have been trading options so much, I think a good time to calculate my performance is every options expiration day. This is always an exciting day for me because … Read more
BankRegData.com: The fundamentals are improving for MGIC; That’s why I’m long.
This week BankRegData.com reviews the Banking Industry 3rd Quarter 2011 performance for Asset Quality, Loans, Restructures and REO. Using the Texas Ratio as a measure of risk we see that (collectively) banks continue to improve: A review by Asset Size shows some risk in the largest banks (where GAAP issues mitigate some of the concerns) and mid-size Community Banks … Read more
RIMM at tangible book value… Wow, that was fast. Short RIMM Jan $13 and $14 puts. Taking advantage of tax loss selling. What about Android on Blackberries? I talk to an Apple app developer.
“Many value investors eschew investing in technology companies because the products are complicated and the field changes rapidly. We take the view that technology companies that are not losing money, are trading at book value, and appear to have a viable product are good investments.” -David Einhorn I think Research in Motion is a “Larry … Read more
2011 A Good Year To Exploit Tax Loss Selling
DISCLOSURE: I hold a long position in COCO and DGIT. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/exploiting-december-tax-loss-selling-2011-12-01
Will the meltdown in China kill the plutonomy trade? Will rap music stop glorifying money? Will women stop liking shiny objects? Snapple Fact: Fossil manufactures watches for Burberry, Emporio Armani and Michele Watch
Citigroup has hired its lawyers to erase from the internet one of its research reports on the plutonomy trade. The only way to get it is to download the torrent, or I can email you the PDF. I may even post it on this website because, frankly, the people at Citigroup are being disgraceful and un-American. Think … Read more
